Elliott Wave Analysis of India's Nifty Index

In this post, we shall take a look at India’s Nifty Index and consider what clues Elliott Wave Analysis offers investors and traders.The stock markets in India have been on the defensive over the last several weeks. In my last update of 4 March 2012, (Looks like Indian stock market rally is fading: NSE India) I had outlined a broad road map of what to expect. If you have read my book, or been a regular reader of this blog, you would know that my approach to using Elliott Waves is different from the conventional one. We should not look for absolutes in the market becuase by its very nature, the market is a reflection of millions of traders who make their private decisions. Hence, even from a crowd-behavior point of view we can only get a broad handle of what is more likley to happen ( I dont even say ‘most likely’). Yet, we often seem to come up with some amazingly accurate calls. Let that not fool you into thinking that Ramki, or for that matter any other ‘guru’ can tell you before hand where you should buy or sell to make an assured profit (and since I don’t consider myself a guru, it is all the more reason you should only view my comments as a learning experience!) Well, I seem to be digressing today, perhaps because this is my last post before a month-long holiday. So let’s quickly get to the point. My target for the Nifty is 4355. This view will get more credibility if we now recover to 5290/95 (which is by no means certain) and then come off to trade below 4950.
Thats it folks. No Charts, no fuss. Best of luck to all of you.
Ramki Ramakrishnan


  • Dear Ramki wish you a very happy vacation. We are going to miss you.See you soon.
    Dr Sanjay Pote.

  • Sudesh

    Thx sir for ur sncrty. Evn going on vacation and informing to all….


  • salimkabani

    First of all thanks a lot for sharing ur views in this circumstances.
    I expect market may pause at 4650 around and recover upto 4840 and final down to 4370. This down trend might be fast.
    Pl. Comment.

  • thiyagu

    yes ramki i too think we will easily reach our target 4355 because most of IIF and local investor are raising question about our fundamentals. And more than that day by day i am really become a big fan of you and your way of applying Elliott wave.

  • salim kabani

    Nifty has got support at 4868.55 and may go upto 4970-5024 then again down move will be taken charge.

  • Santosh

    Hi Ramki,
    “My target for the Nifty is 4355. This view will get more credibility if we now recover to 5290/95 (which is by no means certain) and then come off to trade below 4950.”
    still you think Nifty will move to 5290 beofre moving to 4355

  • Ashish

    How did you calculate 4355 – please label a chart at your convenience.

  • Rajeev Moudgil

    Hi Ramki,
    Hope you had a great vacation.
    Your current view on Nifty, please. Do you still see 5290 – 4955 -4355 happening?
    In case market has decided to skip 5290, what could be potential downside?
    Thank you so much for your advice.
    Best Regards

  • Sahaj agrawal

    Hello Ramki,

    Once again thank you for providing such a simplistic approach towards such a complex theory. I have also been trying to implement the EWT on stocks and indices. Most of the times alternate counts confuse the analyst and hence rendering the practical aspect ineffective.

    WRT the Nifty is it possible that we are in Wave B since Dec 2011. Within the same we have completed wave a and on the verge of completing wave b in the near term. This to be followed by wave c up to finally complete wave B. after this a killing wave C down.

    Kindly suggest


    • Sshaj, Be aware that just about any count is possible. The key question to ask oneself is how a count will help you to trade sensibly. Otherwise, it becomes academic and generally a waste of time.

  • samyuktha joshi

    Hello Friends
    Keep on counting the Waves by which time , one misses the actual Trades and EW count becomes a waste of time as Mr. Ramki himself said above. Right now , there r only 2 trades in Nifty Buy near 4500-4600 and Sell near 5500-5600, this will continue till it Crosses 6300 on the upside or 4500 on the downside.Mind You, if Nifty tests 4500 again it will be the 4th attempt @ 4500 , and its going to break it.If it breaks, it will be a break of Huge Bearish H&S formation with the Height of 1700 points.Its not going to stop @ 4350. Its Trgt 2800 , so lets hope Nifty has Bottommed in Dec 2011 !!

    • Hi Samyuktha, The goal of any analysis should be to make money. The number of trades one can make depends on the time frame one wishes to trade. If one chooses to trade the wave counts on the Weekly Chart there will be fewer trades than what someone else counting on a 5 minute chart can have. My target is 4355, and that serves as a lighthouse while we navigate the waves in the interim. At some point in time, I could change my mind, but not just yet!

  • salim kabani

    Nifty is resisted @5124 today. As per my understanding it will go down upto 4950 and go up to 5300. Then final leg down will be started which may touch @4440


    Dear Salim,

    Today Nifty Break 5124 and high is near 5126.50,and close at 5115.9.
    Now the most of events for indian market is nearby like RBI Policy IIP data, Inflation.
    So No one can predict it how far it can go ,
    So better is still wait for confirmation or sell on low risk point.
    Ramki said that 5295-5300 recovery then we must wait for that and sell at that point.

    • salimkabani

      Thanks Prithvi for sharing ur views.
      There is one more possibility of 5200 also as it is 50% retracement of 5630-4770.

  • Ashutosh

    This is an irregular correction and b has gone beyond the start of a.Today we can witness an up move and 5194 is a reasonable target,for 100 DMA is located here.But this all is corrective just the same.The ‘c’ would drag Nifty down to at least 4950 levels and may be even deeper.

  • Amit tyagi

    Dear Ramky,

    One of things I can see on charts is that this move upwards has broken a long time down trend line from 2010. The trend line has also become a support now as nifty took support exactly at the trendline when it fell in may. Do you think it is start of a medium time bullish markets?

  • Manohar

    No matter wat count i did i couldnt get 4355 as target i am getting.
    Ramki sir how you arrived at 4355?

    • Manohar, I wrote my comments several weeks back. It is best for you to do your own counting using the techniques you have learnt and arrive at your targets. Time to take wings and fly!

  • Suman

    Dear Ramki –
    Hi I have been trying to understand the counting on elliott wave. Unfortunately I am not getting the right material, or may be any other reason. Can you help me. I just want to understand the basic of counting

  • Ankur Aditya

    Ramki Sir !

    U had re-iterated the tgt for nifty was 4355, I have been trying to find out from several wavecounts unfortunately didnot find it properly. It wud be so nice of u if u cud be able to post the fresh chart for our domestic index. According to ur posts all major indexes will plummet and have a very fair chance to make best money out of it. Kindly give us a favour…. Thanks

  • chauhan mufazal

    hi sir nifty trading at 5264 today,
    lets see today or bay tomorow we reach at 5290 after that how to unfolled next downmove

  • salim kabani

    Nifty breaks out of the ascending triangle which shows bullishness. This rally’s wave could not be marked. Please guide.

  • Dear Ramki Sir
    hello there
    on 9th May (followed up by your study of 4th March) you have opined that Nifty may go upto 5290-95 followed by a possible low level around 4950 or still down. yesterday Nifty has broken out of the major resistance level of 5200 and poised at 5278 which is just close to your expected level. kindly throw fresh light on the background of the current development and oblige.
    best of regards

  • prithvi

    Dear Ramki,

    Wow, Nifty touch 5300.

    Now we are wait for your signal,
    Red alert or Green alert????

    Please give a time for update.

  • salimkabani

    Nifty is heading towards 5450 which is 80% retracement of 5630-4770. After that it may be correct. Pl guide.
    Eagerly waiting for ur views.

  • sailesh jain

    Dear Ramki sir,

    nifty is trading @ 5320 which is above your mentioned level 5300 so do u think correction is over and there is bullish engulfing pattern in monthely chats aswell, weekly charts are also indicating same nifty reversal from 4762 level with out breaking previous low 4530 and its can be reffered as higher low

    all these indications shows that correction is over, may be my call is amature.

    please update you view it will be really helpful

    with regards,

    Sailesh Jain

  • RG

    I feel we are in wave C from 4800 ,in third wave , The target for C wave of this move could go to 5950-6000. 5950 is 78% retracement level of entire move from 6300 to 4500, near term resistance could be seen at 5450-5500 Cheers
    Ramki Sir have your view changed

  • jagadeesh

    Dear Ramki Sir,

    Nifty larger wave c is in progress. If we take smaller count wave 4b in progress most probably ending at yesterdays high of 5327. now wave 4c flat shall commence targeting previous low of 4500-4600 range mostly by end of july 2012.

    Ramki sir can u throw some light on this wave count??

  • Rajesh Rekhani

    Dear Ramki, Learned some points from your book. Trying to apply it. Pl. guide & comment.
    Fibo Targets: (some thoughts)

    Rule : 1) Any third wave that does not go beyond 161.8% of wave 1, is considered normal wave 3. 2) If wave 1 and 3 were normal 5 is likely to get extended.
    3) To calculate terminal point of Wave 5, calculate 38.2% and 61.8% from 0 to 3. But if wave 3 was normal, Wave 5 is likely to extended above 100% of 0-3 (sometimes upto 161.8%).

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