Indian Rupee Revisited

On October 21, soon after we saw calls for the Indian Rupee at 57 to a dollar, I suggested we could be heading the opposite direction, towards 45.25. The idea was based on the Elliot wave view that after a 5th wave extends, we should get a sharp reversal down to the 2nd wave of the 5th. With the help of the Reserve bank of India, the rupee strengthened to about 46.75 and is now back near the 50 level. Clearly, both exporters and importers are anxious at these levels. While no one can be absolutely sure of the future, I would suggest that all we are seeing now is the perfectly normal Elliot wave pattern of a double retracement of the extended fifth wave. If the original analysis is correct (and I still believe that it is), we should see the Indian Rupee top out anytime now, (max I allow is 51) and to come down even more rapidly than what we saw the last time. Only this time, we will see it carry down all the way to 45.30. Now I know that this is a bold call. The safe way to handle your exposure will be to wait for the move down to start, and quickly join in after that. It doesn’t matter if you miss out the absolute top. It is more important for you to capture a good measure of the remaining move. So make your hedging/trading decsiions accordingly. Good luck. Ramki

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