- September 9, 2012
- Posted by: Ramki Ramakrishnan
- Category: S&P500, Trading Tips
Now that the S&P500 has entered the 1435-1450 window that I had discussed in my Forbes article, it is natural that we ask ourselves what next for the index. I thought maybe this is a good time to spell out my approach to the markets again. Elliott Wave analysis is a great tool to have in your armory if you know how to use it. Some of us are under the illusion that Elliott Waves will give all the answers to our problems (the main one being our craving to know in advance where the market will turn). The truth is (and I have no hesitation in admitting this) no one knows the future. Can I be wrong about the anticpated turn in the 1435-1450 window? Of course! Does that make all the charts (and my interview on Forbes) utterly useless? Of course not. The key point we have to learn is this. Have a model on which to base your trades. Then get into the market at key levels. When the odds are highly in your favor, you should risk real money. Elliot Waves gives you that opportunity. For example, in my most recent update I had suggested that we will get a dip below 1400 and then rally to 1435-1450.
The prospect of something bitterly disappointing in terms of news flows was quite remote at that point in time. So there was a low-risk trade below 1400. However, as we enter the window where a turn was anticipated by my analysis, the odds for a continuation of the rally seems to be better than an about turn. In such a situation, we have to be cautious. Even if the market does make an about-face in the next few sessions, the bulls are not going to give up without a fight. So we will very likely get a full re-test of the highs from which any such about-face happens. In these circumstances, it is to our benefit that we remain patient and watch the market developments with interest. Never get into a trade while the odds are not yet moving markedly in your favor.
Now a few words about the value of Elliott Wave analysis even if one is going to be wrong. While the market was recovering from the lows at 1267, Elliott Waves told us to look for a 3-wave recovery before a possible sell off. Then, as the market developed, and not too far away from the lows, I pointed out that we are very likely going to get a full test of the highs (which at that time was still 1422). ANd further out, I came up with a diagonal triangle scenario that suggested we will travel to 1435/1450. AT every stage, if one were persistently bearish, he would have refrained from selling until a better level was seen! However, this trader who remained a bear would have missed buying on dips. Without a question, that was an opportunity loss. But this trader was still following his model. There could have been short-term low risk trades that a bolder trader could have made (for example, the move from 1396-1435) but in general, the value came from being faithful to your model. The persistent bear would strike it rich at some point because he is following a model. Not because he is clever, but because he has a method. That, dear reader, is the lesson that we all have to bear in mind. Use Elliott Waves to tarde the market, not to showcase we are brilliant at counting. Good luck.
PS. The bearish counts on the S&P are still not negated by the way 🙂