Counting Elliot Waves in USD/CHF

A reader has asked about a possible fifth wave extension in USD/CHF. (refer comment by Dolphin). We are currently trading at 1.2217. I see some solid supports at 1.2000 levels and tehn some more at 1.1850 levels just now. These supports could only move higher as we stay better bid on the dollar. I strongly recommend that we should look at the bigger picture first in order to get a sense of how high a rally could go, (or how deep a decline) and then figure out how to count the waves. Of course, the end result of all our counting should be to initiate profitable low risk trading ideas, which we should execute, at least with a small position. Otherwise, we will end up as mere arm-chair analysts! Anyway, here is the monthly chart of the USD/CHF and I am already making the sin of looking only at the last 5-wave decline !! Still, that gives us an idea of how high the correction could go. Enjoy!  Ramki

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  1. hi ramki,
    thanks for your analysis and sharing your valuable knowlegde with us !
    just a question related to extended 5 wave – i have a look on the pair GBP/JPY (monthly chart) and observe that from june 2007, the pair is making clear elliot wave with very extended 5 wave – from july 2008 ! we need to expect a reaction / retracement up to the 4 wave , which is in the range of 200 !!! the present downtrend, look like loose a strenght and there is also a bullish divergence but with present price of 137-138, and the weak GBP, do you think that this is possible?
    thanks and brgds

  2. Hello Dolphin,
    I think your question is better addressed with a chart. This will appear later today. Thanks for your comments.

    1. Hello Luca,
      Don’t try buying USD/CHF yet. I see some good resistance at 1.0425 and 1.0525. Think we are likely to see a move towards 1.0220 in the not too distant future. Good luck!

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