Crude Oil – Elliott Wave Analysis 14 July 2010

When dealing with financial markets, you should always be ready to change your mind about the framework on which you are basing your analysis. If everything was laid out cut and dried, there won’t be a market because everyone would know what is going to happen. Take the case of crude oil. In my Elliott wave analysis of oil presented to you on 6th July, I used an hourly chart to project as far as possible about the likely moves.  I suggest that you print the chart attached to that update and view it alongside the chart of today. You will see that in terms of the waves, I am continuing to be faithful to the original version, because the twists and turns have happened exactly as anticipated. However, when we reached $76, instead of coming down directly to $60, the price went only to around 74.25 and has since traded higher again. You should understand that Hourly charts are useful only to a limited extent. There are too many factors that impact the market. It is wonderful that we got so many good moves using the hourly chart. The bigger picture still calls for a large sized down move in Oil. We will attempt to pin point the top as we approach it. Till that time, you are on your own, because I am currently updating the blog less frequently than previously. Good luck.


  • Bageshwar

    Hello Ramki,

    Good to see your views and wave reports on various instruments.
    I keenly follow Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and would like to get your views on this with your wave analysis.
    Many thanks in advance and pls keep your articles posted for people like us.




  • L1ctin

    Hello Mr.Ramki, i want to ask you a learning question about elliott wave. Where can i find more information to read about the time periods part of elliott wave analysis? Basic, to learn how to apply a time period to a probable elliott count.

    Best Regards,

    • Hi Lucian, Any of the standard books will address that, but practicioners have seldom experienced enduring success in using wave analysis to determine time frames for turns. Take for example my call that Oil will be near $60 by September. That time frame will probably be wrong!

  • BJ

    Hi Ramki,

    Can you please do a wave count on nymex crude? I can count 5. But i do not know if its a fifth of a fifth. There is also a reversal on daily charts with momentum divergence. Your update here would be quite useful.


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