Crude Oil Outlook

I would like to share with you some charts that demonstrate how to use Elliott Wave Analysis in the real world.

The first chart, dated June 9, (when Crude oil was at 101.18) shows a large triangle. As you know, I have remained faithful to the bearish outlook throughout the recent weeks, even in the face of bullish calls from other analysts. This in itself is an important lesson for some. It is essential to stick to one count until proved wrong, or until fresh clues emerge.

In the second chart I have redrawn the triangle (and called it Wave B). The sell off that started from point B has already completed 3 steps. If this is a C wave, we should see it complete the 4th wave around 95.10-45 and come off as a fifth wave. We would also look for the 5th wave to extend. However, if we see it trade above 96.10, then we will use any dip thereafter to exit shorts and wait for better levels to reinstate.


  • Sir plz update Shorterm view for MCX Copper ….. Your Crudeoil View Rocks .Hats Off

    • Manoj, I am going to use the chart of Copper to illustrate one EW concept in a book that I am writing. Posting it now will rob readers of any novelty, right? Anyway, think we go lower still in the August contract. Resistance lies at 408.05/15 levels.

  • eddie

    hi Ramki , just wondering what your thoughts are on the eur seeing you called it well on way down. Its trading it seems in middle of the range at 1.4410.

  • arvind chari

    Sir, oil yest peaked out at 95.55 . exactly as u pointed in this post… so are we to expect the 5th down wave now…. for someone who only relies on ur post and not understand technicals at all, this patttern move in oil has been extremely gut wrenching.. especially with goldman not making things any easier …

    • Hi Arvind, Oil will continue to edge lower now to around 88 as a first step and below that to reach 85.10. I agree with you that some of the recent moves have been very hard on many traders. But some of their troubles could have been mitigated with a proper use of Elliott Wave analysis, which is easier said than done!

  • Bob D

    Dear Ramki……I believe Crude Oil broke below $93.00 this morning. Thank you for the advanced review on this commodity. I marvel at your abilities to read the markets. I believe you are expecting the fifth wave to extend. Would you expect the third or the fifth wave within 5 to extend?

    • Hi Bob, Thanks for your comments. It is hard to state which wave within the extending fifth will itself be an extension, usually it is the 3rd, but the moves are so fast, and the immediate target is so near, that a trader shouldn’t worry too much about it.

  • rajesh

    hello ramki sir,i saw the chart of crude and it seems to be making a falling wedge.then we should soon see it going up rather than down.please advise.

  • rajesh

    sir,@94.94 i had posted my comment that i had seen a falling wedge in crude.the breakout has taken place.crude may test the recent high before wave c down begins.sir,require your updates on crude silver gold.

  • Sachin Advai

    Hello Sir,
    What is your outlook for Crude, now that it has breached the Level you said one should watch out on the upside ?

  • miro

    Hello Sir,

    Would you be able to review “Crude Oil Outlook” again and share your review with us?


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