ELliott Wave Analysis of Dubai Index 18 Jan 2010

Following an extended 3rd wave sell off, the index had recovered by 50% of that decline. However, I feel that this recovery was only part of a complex 4th wave. SO be patient while this 4th wave unfolds over an extended period of time. We will get the 5th wave much later, at which time there will be clear signs of a bottom developing. That is the time to buy the blue chip stocks included in the Dubai index.

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  1. Dear Ramki,

    Thank you for your reply, I really appreciate it, but I have a question please.

    Can this current wave that is complex 4th wave as you expect, to be extend, exceeding wave 3 sell off, which will end the index in breaking its previous low and recording a lower bottom that we have seen in Feb last year at 1427 or below 1460 that we recorded on the day Dubai world announced a standstill.

    Thank you so much

    1. Hello MH,
      I think you are asking me whether the final 5th wave can go below the previous low, (and not whether the complex 4th itself will break the prior low). If you look at the daily chart, we have a significant low at 1427 on Feb 25, 2009 and a retest of that low at 1461 on Dec 10, 2009. Thus we have already tested that region twice, and bounced very well. Unless a major problem develops, most investors would grab a chance to buy near that level. Hence, I am not anticipating a break down of that low. However, we should always remember that wave analysis is an exercise in probability, and who knows, maybe the 2nd low was not the end of the 3rd wave, but the completion of the 5th itself!! As of now, I will just be patient and expect a dip to 1605 and see what happens there.

  2. Mr. Ramki
    Thank you so much for your reply, and your efforts, but when we touch 1461 level we bounced back fast but currently we are dropping day after day and no interest in buying at all investors are willing to sell at lower levels, on the other hand the level 1650 held well being a strong support level, but isn’t stronger than 1800 which we broke, as we all now supports & resistances are made to be broken.

    Plus as you can see the international markets began a correction which has a negative effect on the other markets in general.

    Mr. Ramki what are your view on Kuwait market now as it is holding well at 6900/7000 levels

    Thank you so much and appreciate you response

  3. hi, we have dropped to 1540 which is a strong support level and seen it bounces from there to end the week at 1600, do we consider that we have completed wave 5 and now we begin a new cycle to higher levels, or we will only see a bounce or pullback to 1850/1900 then we begin our 5th wave downwards.

    1. Hello MH,
      I’m inclined to give the DUbai index some more time before thinking of buying. We could get a retest of recent lows at the minimum

  4. on 17th jan 2010 on DOW chart .i want to know is there any time relation between w2 and w4 .your labeling in (2) and (4) in pink .how come wave 3 which is larger in time and length then wave 1 .which has correction small in time and length then w2 .iam not questing your wisdom .i always has problem with this kind of situation .can u share some light on this issue .i hope u understand what i mean .another question .what is the maximum relation between wave a and wave b of same degree.please give some idea

  5. Dear Mr. Ramki,

    It has been a long time you have not given us your update on Dubai and Kuwait markets, today Dubai reached 1875 levels and Emaar reached 4.14 and closed at 4.07

    Would like to have your middium term view on these markets and Emaar if possible.

    Thank you again

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