Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD (EURUSD=X) – ccy

In my last Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD (EURO) published on 9th January 2012, I had suggested that traders should look to cover any shorts they may be running close to 1.2600 because there was a reasonably good chance to recover from there. I also pointed out an alterate count that could view the dip towards 1.26 as an extended fifth wave, which would mean any recovery will be sharper. When one knows the existence of two possible counts, both pointing higher, a trader will ignore the warning signals at his/her own peril.

Now that we have come up to as high as 1.3300 in the EURUSD, what should we do? As explained in my book Five Waves to Financial Freedom, we should figure out the most likely count and then take action at levels that present us the greatest rewards for the lowest risk. As all traders know, there is no reward without risk, and what Elliott Waves does is to give us a framework to control the risk. Accordingly, because I see the possibility of the EURUSD continuing towards 1.3458, I will be extra careful as we near 1.2930. Sure, the Greek situation could explode and we could collapse directly. But who knows what will happen!! On the other hand, we know our theory that says a correction can never be finished if it is made of 5 waves, and we have only seen 5 waves up from near 1.26. That means we could get another 5 wave rally in the EURO after a correction. This is our theory, and we have to trade our theory, right? But just be sensible about where you place your stops. Good luck.


  • Stani

    Hello Ramki!
    Thank you for this great lesson again!
    I’ve also spotted extended 5th in A, made a good sell entry at 1,3190 after first recovery wave and waited for a sharp correction to around 1,2950, but not reached the target (yet?). Until now I thought wave B is already over and we are in C now (possible irregularity inside of B didn’t cross my mind for some reason:-))
    Interesting that if B is really already finished, the level 1,3458 corresponds to 70,7 of A
    Very best regards,

    • Hi Stani, If there is one key lesson my book teaches, it is this. It is ok to have your own count which may be different from everyone else’s. Just make sure you know at what pointyour count will break down, and plan your entry level to keep your risk minimal. Also be aware that almost everyone’s counts will go wrong at some point…

  • rkg

    Ram – another superb call.
    1.262x to 1.33xx => 1.29xx => 1.34xx… some 15 odd big figures range very well anticipated and forecast. Terrific. The daily chart where you noted ‘ideally should get to here’ is the best piece i have seen in the market in recent times!!

  • karan

    We got the Euro to 2975 low like you mentioned and then a nice rally. But recent PX has been very confusing. Are we currently correcting the move from 2625 low or the 2975 low ? An update on euro would very helpful! Thank you sir.

  • fiscal

    If you can give us your analysis of the recent move of EURO.

  • Stani

    Hello Ramki!
    Congrats, it was amazing call once again! Just unbelievable how accurate all the move followed the way predicted by you! My hat off to you!
    Very best regards,

  • fiscal

    Sir, some update on euro/dollar please?

  • luca

    hihihi dot Ram
    if poss. can you update your analysis on eur /usd pls

  • Anonymous

    Are you confused like the most of us with the EURUSD? why no update. Its been a while…..

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