Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold 29 Aug 2010

When I presented my wave analysis of Gold on 25th July, we were looking for a rally from around 1157 because a 5-wave decline seemed over. I also warned to wait for the selling to start before joining in. During the month that has passed, Gold has rallied as expected, but the rally is taking a 5-wave pattern. Now this is a valuable clue for the trader. If we were correct in our labels, the current recovery should be a 3-wave pattern (being a 2nd wave as per our older analysis). When we see a 5 wave pattern, and other indicators are still pointing higher prices, we should do two things. First, revise our old count and postpone any thought of selling. Second, look for possible targets for the top. The possible targets are shown on the second chart here. Remember, we are still in the planning stage for the next trade. When the time to sell comes, it will be clear to us, and I hope to update you again. Enjoy!


  • nidhisilver

    dear sir,
    what level should be watch for on the downside to break to confirm that the 5th wave has completed & the correction has started.

    Kindly reply.
    thanks & rgds,

    • Hi Nidhi, If you see a decline of more than 30 dollars from any level now, then that likely marks the BEGINNING of the end. You will then get prepared to lookout for retracements to sell (always with affordable stops)

  • Ahmed Farghaly

    Hello Ramki,
    This was my alternate count as well, the wave b previously labelled 5 lacked some impulsive characteristics. I have a question for you Mr Ramki, looking at gold data since the late 60’s it looks like we had a wave 1 ($35-$179.50) Iregular wave 2 (terminus: $103.50) wave 3 (103.50-850) wave 4: double zigzag with a tiangular X (terminus 250) and this is the fifth of that cycle, would you agree with this count and if so, shall we target the wave 4 terminus of a smaller degree which sits at $250?

    Your insights a much appreciated
    Ahmed Farghaly

  • Hi Ahmed, I beg to differ with that count, but who knows! I personally don’t wish to use wave analysis using monthly charts because it very seldom gives me actionable ideas. We should leave these very long term counts in the hands of those who gain prominence by making long-term forecasts.Quite honestly, I was reluctant to even look at the count from 250 for my analysis. But it fitted nicely with the 5-wave count starting from 680. Wavetimes tries to present ideas that are useful. It helps you trade. It helps you learn. It doesn’t claim to be the magic box that gives winning ideas all the time! Good luck.

  • Ahmed Farghaly

    Hello, Mr Ramki
    I appreciate your quick reply,
    Yes, ive grown to appreciate your work here at wave times, its a great source to view and compare elliott wave counts on various markets, I do have a request though, it would be SPECTACULAR if you can take a look at the Case 30 Index also known as EGX, its one of Egypts stock indexes.

    Ahmed Farghaly

    • Thank you Ahmed. Much as I would like to do what you ask, I’m just not having the time to look at several instruments. ONe day, perhaps, when I retire, and take this as a full time profession, I will cover a lot more markets. But let me warn you it won’t be free at that time 😉

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