- August 21, 2011
- Posted by: Ramki Ramakrishnan
- Category: Gold
There are many urgent voices asking for an Elliott Wave update on Gold. As you know, I have warned readers here not to be short of this commodity because no matter what your projected targets are for the end of a fifth wave, it could just keep going if it were extending. (This is different from the analysis of GBP/USD presented here today. The fifth wave there is a fifth within a corrective C wave..)
As you can see from the chart, we seem to be experiencing an extension in the fifth wave (even though the third wave was also an extended wave). Although Elliott has said that at least one impulse wave will be extended, we have seen several cases of a trend having two extensions. ( we will not quarrel with those who disagree, because what works for us seems to work well!)
Going back to the Gold chart, wave 3 did a 300% projected move of Wave 1. Then we got a brief correction after which the fifth wave took off to the upside again. There was no way anyone could have predicted a second extension, but WaveTimes warned you that we should forget about being short.
The next question is are we anywhere near the top? My feeling is we will likely experience a bout of selling around 1895/1925 and witness a quick correction down to 1815 area. But then we will try one more time to go up. That final push may well take us to around 2055, but as of now, I would urge you to be very careful during that push. There is nothing as yet in the horizon to make anyone want to dump Gold, but when the bubble does burst (and one possible level lies around 2055), we will get a fairly aggressive move down to 1480. We shall see. Good luck.