Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty – Ramki's CNBC Interview

The following interview was aired by CNBC TV18 on 11 June 2015. At that time, the Nifty index of India was trading well below the 8000 level. Watch it and see the power of Elliott Wave analysis.
Today, the index tested a high of 8421. Will it go down to 7700? That depends on a fresh analysis of the index, but anyone who sold at 8420 levels would have already made enough money intraday to celebrate as the index plunged to 8339 in under two hours.

(The interview’s link appears in the prior post as well. Hence I removed the link here)

Nifty dives from 8421
Nifty dives from 8421


19 Comments

  • john

    Hi Ramki, You are right. Its a power of waves and more over its a power of knowledge that you have.

  • john

    Hello Ramki,
    I would like to share my thoughts.
    Scenario 1
    I feel in daily chart from 10 th april to 4 th march it looks like abc strcuture. So it must be B wave in corrective waves. If this is correct then then following 5 legs will be C and X and ABC.
    scenario 2
    Else if we argue that abc structure waves in the above mentioned period is of abc in ending diagonal of 5th wave then we might expect one more leg to the downside.
    But I would like to go with the scenario because RSi is gaining momentum and price has made a double bottom and the rally from 12 th june to 24 th june has retraced more than 78.6% of double bottom price and also broker trendline from 4th March and it is above middle BB. So I feel it has chances of taking support @ middle BB or any of the Fib numbers and then start going upwards.
    Please share your views.

    Regards

  • waseem

    Dear Ramki sir,
    Hates off to u, I have watched cnbc interview in which u have said the possibility of 8420.
    If it is possible then please post the on going complex correction chart of nifty on the blog. As I mentioned earlier too that it would be fruitful to understand complex correction practically, with your kind analysis.
    Best regards.

  • Rakesh Roongta

    Dear Mr Ramji, i want your guidance in stock market investments

  • Prabh

    Ramki Sir,

    Is it possible that 8421 is end of the third wave of the bigger wave which commenced at 7940 levels of same timecycle which charts are shown because 8421 is also exact 4.0 fib ratio from end of second wave(8058) till 8421.

    • Prabh, Just about anything is possible. As a trader, we have to constantly evaluate the picture as we approach each target. So just because I was saying at that time we will go down to 7700 doesn’t make it mandatory now. I constantly evaluate the signals, which is how we should use Elliott Waves.

  • Piyush Goyal

    Ramki Sir,

    I am confused in two senarios on Nifty chart and require your guidance.
    1) if we consider the ABC correction to be a simple zig-zag I can draw that we are in currently 3rd wave of the C wave with target near 7500.
    2) If we consider alternation theory the C wave must be complex which gives me that we are in diagnol pattern with a,b,c,d already completed and e expected around 7900 & may end the ABC correction.

    Now out of 2 scenario, HOW TO JUDGE which one is more possible scenario OR may be any third scenario. It is too easy to draw the waves after the move but how to do it before.

    Regards,
    Piyush Goyal.

    • Piyush, At any point in time, there are often several interpretations. Your best clues come from the personality of the waves. When the direction is knows, you should trade and not worry about whether it is a wave ‘c’ or wave 3, for example.

  • Ram

    Sir…..now can we say..nifty started new big upwave for new highs??? And 7700 not coming now??thx

    • Ram, I use Elliott Waves to trade. The so-called forecasts that CNBC and other media seek out is what I think at that time. We always have to be conscious of a developing market and be willing to change tactics. As you must have observed, we rallied to 8420 and came down from there on two occasions, deep enough to produce decent profits. The fact that it did not make it to 7700 is no longer relevant to me. It may be to those who want to see accurate forecasts! But for me, the key question is ‘have I made money’? If you ask me now where Nifty will go, I will have to do a fresh analysis and present my view. But even that could change after some new events take place.

  • Prabh

    Ramki Sir,

    If particular Waves are not following Fib ratio would you recommend that Wave counts should be altered.Fib ratios should be taken as guidelines or confirmed rules?Please share your experience.

  • Piyush Goyal

    Dear Sir,

    Thanks for not replying. Now I am getting the sense that technical analysis & EW are just tools to make ourself fool. For every chart there are many no. of possibilities and which will come out is not sure. If market moves as per my analysis I am a hero otherwise I will keep on scratching my head.
    Now I am realizing why so called Experts are actually working in a Bank or selling their advices through many means, instead of becoming rich just by investing in the market directly. I just blindly believed in what my TA teacher told me and still trying to make money by investing which is not fully successful yet.
    So either what I said abv is correct Or I am not able to understand it properly i.e TA & EWP are not for me. I would like to hear your views if you have time & plz answer it privately on my mail because I don’t want to disturb your client base.

    Regards,
    Piyush Goyal.

    • Hi Piyush, Many thanks for writing. I have no hesitation in publishing your comments. We are all adults and can make up our own minds as to what works for us, and what doesn’t. We can also distinguish between useless and useful information. I wish you the best of luck in the markets.

  • BJ

    Hi Ramki,

    The move for Nifty from 7940 to 8561 is a clear non overlapping 5 waves :
    (i) 7940-8057
    (ii) 8057-7952
    (iii) 7952-8423 (~425% extended)
    (iv) 8423-8195 (~ 50% fib retracement)
    (v) 8195-8561 (~75% of i-iii )

    So where does this fit in your bigger picture? Are you still looking for that dip that you talked about? Or Since the ascend is in 5 steps, do we take a +ve approach around 8250, the 50% retracement level?

    Thanks in advance,

  • Piyush Goyal

    Sir,
    Thanks for your reply. We all are receiving good knowledge from your experience but waves many times become too slippery and count become difficult leading to a confused state.
    Anyway Thanks again.

    Regards,
    Piyush Goyal.

  • Hadi Soliman

    Dear Sir Ramki : – Can you kindly post recent update for EGX 30 egyptian market , did we already finished ABC correction from low made in 2009 ?!
    Best Regards

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