- July 18, 2011
- Posted by: Ramki Ramakrishnan
- Category: China
Elliott Wave Analysis of Shanghai SE Composite Index reveals a five wave rally that completed at 3478. That level was just about 38.2% retracement of the whole big move down from 6120 to 1655. If you examine the internal waves of the rally to 3478, you will see that the 5th wave was longer than all the other impulse waves. Typically, when we get an extended 5th wave, the correction that follows will quickly take us down to the 2nd wave of the extension itself. This phenomenon has been illustrated in dozens of charts in www.wavetimes.com and across different asset classes.
The interesting thing about the Shanghai SE Composite Index is this. If the correction to 2320 (from 3478) was the end of wave 2, we should have had an explosive third wave rally. But what we are seeing is a sideways movement that will eventually resolve to the downside, and potentially take the index to around 2100. Now you need to be aware that we might not go down there directly, because the hourly charts shows a pattern that requires one more recovery after a slight dip down. But in the absence of a sharp rally, the odds will increase for a move lower, and you will be better off for having read these technical comments on wavetimes. Good luck.