Elliott Wave Analysis of USDINR Indian Rupee

There have been many calls for an analysis of the Indian Rupee, which has recently seen a bout of weakness. I am often amazed at how importers and exporters alike are not able to take simple decisions about hedging at certain levels which make a compelling case for action. Perhaps they are misled by the cacophony of trader-like recommendations coming from banks and brokers that are seeking to get more deals on their books! Take a look at the three charts here, and you will see that any treasurer or finance manager should have been advised to act when the INR was near 44 levels. Ramki

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  1. Sir Simple Question !!
    Can Elliot Waves Be Used In Agro Commodites Like CHANA–TUREMERIC Which Are Seasonal based ..Traded In NCDEX –If Yes Can Give A An Example on CHANA Ncdex !!


  2. Sir, I have bought your book two days back. Hope to learn labeling of waves by reading of book & your kind guidance.
    Thanks & Regards.

  3. This is great. Are you saying around 49 (62%) level is short term top or point from where it will turn down again. In other words do you think 52 level was all time high for long time? I see you have 52 to 39 as ABC means its corrective so now is this impulsive again that will go above 52?

  4. I’ve been tracking USD-INR price movements using weekly price data. Was waiting for completion of ending diagonal triangle near 44. This puts into perspective where Rupee is headed against dollar (as high as 60 to the dollar and even higher). Tells the story of what FII’s are about to do.

  5. Hi

    I have started understanding the principles in the book better after reading a couple of chapters few times and it’s an excellent foundation in the first 2 chapters…the issue I have with your book is why we didn’t have these pearls of your wisdom years ago 😉 Thank you for such an excellent book which is well worth it’s weight in gold (at current prices ;-). I’m no expert and thousands of leagues below yourself but thanks to your guidance when I look at a chart the first thing I inadvertently start doing is counting waves..unfotunately I also see the great missed trades from lack of this knowledge before…just got to build enough knowledge from further reading the book to apply it now.

    1. Hitesh, I have no idea about RBI regulations as I am not based in India. What I am trying to show here is how it is possible for hedgers to take action at key levels. Also, there is an active interbank market both in India and outside.

    2. Hitesh,

      The answer is there in the link you have provided – “Residents are, however, permitted to trade in currency futures and options contracts, traded on the stock exchanges recognised by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) in India..” The MCX provides this facility. If you are outside India this anyway does not pertain to you.

      Good luck,

  6. Hi Ramki

    Having seen market touched ( nifty ) 4800 twice in a short span of time, and Dow in 10,000’s thousand, would like to know IS IT THAT WE ARE MISSING THE BIG PICTURE. I mean w.r.t nifty if i go about the charts are we heading for 61.8% retracement and touching 3800 ( starting from 2250 till 6300 ) ???

    Also Gold made a double top at 1925 lvls and now trading at 1620. Following the charts shown by you and some other experts can we hit 1480 ( tgt by you ) then down to 1330 and then all the way to 1130 any time soon ??? ( in anticipation and out of curiosity )

    1. Lucky G, If you go back to my earlier charts, 1155 was always there. We have to take these one step at a time, unless we are trying to make a living by making forecasts! (in which case one will be a hero one day, and an imbecile on another, depending on whether his/her follower has made money or not!)

  7. Hi RK,

    Your last update was 2 months back. Do you think its time for another quick check as to where USDINR is heading now that is has zoomed past the 61.8 resistance and going with full vigour to break the all time high?


    1. Hi Koppishetty, Sorry for the dleayed response. But as I have indicated elsewhere, I am not waiting for the top myself. Convrting in stages is a sensble idea if one has a long term view. However, for traders it is a different story…..

      1. Thankyou RK.

        I have asked a trader question and you responded to an investor :). Can’t ask for more!!

        Being an NRI(flashback:Long story short, lost a sizable amount converting USD to INR during 2007 anticipating rupee will appreciate further to 35 levels from 40s and was never able to balance in 2008 when it broke back to 50s) can’t go wrong this time around following an advice from a Sage. So its payback time folks 😉

  8. Sir, the INR has depreciated with amazing ferocity and speed, characteristic of a 3rd Wave. However, unless the 1st Wave was an extended wave, odds are the third will extend, and the swiftness is sure indicative! At the very least, we should have equality between Wave One and Three, indicating a real stop only around 57? Could you please share your views? Much appreciated.

    – A very absorbed student from Chennai. 🙂

    1. I am new to Elliott analysis but quite keen to see how it works on USDINR.
      I just addeda new topic under EURUSD forum. (In Elliot wave forum menu option above). Could you please add you comments and analysis there. I hope may be some one will give their further analysis.
      Thank you,

  9. Hi Ramki,

    The rupee has breezed through the all time low. So quite clearly it is a wave 3 of some degree. And the triple bottom at 44, seems to be a wave 2 that corrected the entire impulse move from 39 to 52 (there have been 2 small corrections during the move to 39 to 52) – like you have shown in your book. Could you please post an update on the counts here?
    Best regards,

  10. Like they say, hindsight is always (more like, often) 100% right. Predicting money trends is as accurate as psychic readings – a make-believe way to make money.

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