Elliott Wave comment on EURUSD

The EURUSD has moved agressively higher. From an Elliott Wave perspective, I think that unless the Germans come out with a negating statement early next week, the Euro will continue to stay bid and could reach 1.2945/60 initially and later on 1.3145. Trade from long side by buying on supports now until we get get a close below 1.2645. (sorry brief, but this is how it will be for the next few updates)

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  1. Hi Ramki
    So I understand that we are beginning now a new rising cycle? I thought we were completing the descending cycle towards 1,18! Could you please show your count in a chart?
    Kind regards

  2. Hi Ram

    I feel that all theories predict direction but none goes even near with the timing element and which is very important in this business and whenever they have tried to time it they get it right here and there only. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Seasonal trading is only theory that has a higher probability to be right on timing. So if one can couple EW with seasonal aspect it can become a deadly tool. Lesser predictions but more accurate predictions with convictions.


      1. The unpredictability of time element is what keeps the fun alive in trading. The time challenge keeps us motivated to do our best in other areas of technical analysis.

      2. sir i can time the market but with 3 or 4 pressure dates which will change the trend say dollar indes will bottom out 79.82 level pressure date tuesday +or – 1 day and major bull run towards 91-97 will start and all world indices along with crude start melting and crude has hit its top at 98.5 pressure date 22 august and now crude will hit 31.5 dollar in 2013 so with a minimum stop loss of 2.5 dollar one can short crude for first tgt of 65 dollar which is 31 dollar profit agains 2 dollar sl an exceelnt trade and second tgt 45 dollar by december 2012 or february….2013 so i have give 1 example of crude pressure date past 22 aug. 2012 and trend change and second example of future of dollar index and also note silver and gold has also same pressure date on tuesday so silver will topout in range of 34-34.8 and tgt 17 dollar so plese check all my predictions with time element……

  3. Do you still stick with your views about S&P correction after it reaches 1435 level or so? I read your article in forbes.com and you said S&P would dip just below 1400 & then go to 1430-35 level. If yes, whats the next target on downside?

  4. Sir, I am still learning EW and just wander how did you came up with those resistance points 1.2945/60 and 1.3145 in EUR/USD?

  5. Hi Everybody! Just wanted to say that EWA is only a matter of wasting time! if you wanted to follow this method since early June you could not take any position since you have been waiting for a top at S& P , EURUSD, … to open a short position and after 3 months and not having a single $ profit now you are advised to open a long position which I am sure after one week you will see that Oh you should not, at least Mr Ramki mentioned on his analysis during last 3 months that S&P topped and now we are expecting to go lower and now….. living base on trading is a wate of time, do not loose your hard working saving on this fraud!!!

    1. Hi Ajit, Thank you for taking time to write. I approved your critical comments because there is nothing in my blog that tries to defraud anyone. Elliott wave analysis is an approach to financial markets, and you either love it or hate it. You belong to the latter camp, and I respect that. Good luck.

      1. Dear Ramki,

        I think Mr. Ajit probably meant EWA to be a Fraud rather than as a personal attack on you. No one in this popular blog readership will ever think of even thinking in that way about you.

        Most traders who come to the market want quick money and by nature traders cannot remain out of the market for long.

        With EW the targets keep moving most of the timewith so many complexities like waves within waves, irregular waves, wave extensions, Fib ratios etc., and the universe of stocks being followed is big, a trader will get frustrated and confused about what to do.

        EW can be a nice scientific way to get engrossed in technical analysis to see if one’s prediction comes true.

        Due to its complexities, I think that EW has very limited potential to be a great tool for a trader. For a trader simple multi-period moving averages should be enough to give entry and exit points. 🙂

        Best Regards
        R Sathyamurthy

        1. Hi Satyamurthy, Thanks for your comments. I am sure Mr Ajit means well. Elliott waves needn’t be complex. Traders who want to get involved in every small move will find it so, because they will then start looking at minor waves. The best way for most non-professional traders is to wait for a low-risk level on the daily charts. As for moving averages, I know that they work as well as any other approach. We have heard of some people who made large sums with MAs. What we havent heard is about people who have lost even bigger sums using the same techniques. (the same goes for EWP). The secret is to pick your battles carefully, and to be consistent. Any method will work if one knows how to use it well.

    2. Actually depending upon any theory entirely for that matter is a loser’s game. There is no one theory. If there was one we would have had a science of it and would be taught in schools. Markets are so dynamic in nature with so diverse elements in play it is impossible to make a theory around it. IMPOSSIBLE. I think majority are searching for THAT 1 theory or THAT 1 strategy which will make the coins. But eventually everyone finds out there is none. But being at it for a while a successful investors gets a sense of the markets there behavior and they take everything in account – macro, micro, politics, fundamental, quantitave as well as qualitative aspects and when one understands each piece and their correlation then right thing comes at you effortlessly and you do not need to search. Then theories like EWP like many others are just aids to your decision capability and not reasons for your decisions which is the crux of the problem.

  6. Hi Mr Ramki actually I just wanted to see if your only income is from trading or it is just like a fun on top of your other constant income? If you are trying to feed your family based on that and you need to have a profit and you sit on your hand to see a 5 wave and then wait for 0.62 retrace and then you will see that it has been retraced completely and it happened for last three months at least for 10 times ( I went short 3 times in S&P since it look liked too corrective, I went long on UCDCAD when it had a very clear 5 wave up! when long on AUDUSD after it had a very clear 5 wave up, sme on NZDUSD,etc) and now I have lost almost all my capital and have to look at my hungry baby every night so I can consider myself in the latter camp as well! this is zero game and only I have trusted EWA and saw the results!!!

    1. Hi Mark, first of all, let me say how sorry i am to hear of that misfortune. To answer your questions, I have a full time job, and hence I offer eerything on wavetimes for free. Secondly, wavetimes aims to share whatever little knowledge i have of elliott waves. I have often said that readers should look elsewhere if they need trading ideas. May I respectfully suggest that you scale down your trading activities to something minimal while you refine your trading tactics? Just like every other approach to the market, elliott waves will hurt you badly if you apply it incorrectly. I wish you good luck and safe journey going forward.

  7. hello sir..Im still learning..but what im seeing in eur/usd is a corrective wave “b”supposed to happen sooner…and going to take it to 1.244…in daily n weekly chart…imo

  8. Sir Ramki,

    Due to youre lately forecast of a possible reversal if DJI, isn’t it likely to see a powerful move up in the dollar index near term?

  9. Hi! Thank you for all the info you share with us! About eur/usd: it grows from 1,2060 to 1.3113 without correction, when there is time for the correction, what do You think, and how deep it could be? Somewhere into 1.26 maybe? Thank you.

  10. Dear Ramki,
    Looks like we (retail traders) pray for correction to 1.25-1.26 so maybe market wants next target to 1.34xx without any correction? thank you

  11. Hi Ramki,

    I just want to say weldone professional we hit your two targets 1.2945/60 and 1.3145 since your last brief update on EUR/USD, what a nice brief update it was.

    As always please keep the good work my dear friend…..Good Luck All

  12. Hi Mr R

    Can u give an indication of what sort of standard lots there are on the bid and sell side of, say the EURO/USD? Is it pretty easy to get rid of say 10000 standard lots? I am trying to grasp the reality of a 4 trillion $ market.

    1. Trevor, in the days when I was an interbank trader, when a broker from London made a price in USD/DEM for example 53/56 and if I said “yours” or “mine” he will do 20 million. If I wanted to do more I will usually ask him ( for example) can I give you 45 million? When I was working with a hedge fund in NY, the trader would normally ask the bank ” what’s YEN in 500 million” and the bank would know we are speaking of 500 million dollars. Sometimes we tell the bank to execute a large order and tell us the average rate of execution. For a very large amount, everyone will start selling the moment they hear that we are in the market. So discretion is essential. Hope I have given you a flavor of the markets!

  13. Hi Ramki
    do you think the correction of the E/$ is only a correction of the uptrend or is it the beginning of a new downtrend ? And where should one sell and buy ?

  14. Hi Ramki,

    my count for the Euro is that we have seen with the latetest retracement to near 1,28 the Wave 4 or A. So i think we will see higher prices the next days. I do not have intraday data right now to see the structure in a smaller timeframe to spot if it was a 3 or 5 wave move down. If it was the 4 we could see 1,3250. If it was only the A (of a Flat or ZigZag) than near the high 1,3170 or only 38% Retracement of this downmove…http://www.tradesignalonline.com/forum/thread.aspx?id=5229
    Thank you for your comments

  15. I’m also interested in an updated chart of EU. My own count suggests we’re currently finishing a Wave 4 (starting at the low of 1.2042 all the way up to 1.3171). In that scenario a big Wave 5 is coming up with a target around 1.1351 (W5 = W1) and 1.1393 (W5 = 61.8% of W1-W3).
    Any thoughts?

  16. it is difficult to understand ending diagonal.
    I know the basic things from your book, However ,for me, many charts looks like ED recently.
    for example, Eur/JPY , S&P… but it seems it does not works.

    1. Hi Lilly, we have to start with the understanding that no two formations will ever be the same. Next, some formations will change shape over time. For ending diagonals the internal waves should be 3s. Finally, successful trading is about taking low risk positions, not zero risk. Good luck

      1. Hi, Ramki.
        Thank you for your reply.
        and…if it is possible, could you update Eur/Usd count?
        I am wondering how can it be counted the downwaves from 1.31 mid and this upwave from 1.28.

  17. Hi Ramki,
    do you see on Daily basis a C-Wave? If A=C i we will see about 1,2700 and there is also 50% Retracement of iii (the minor 3).
    Thank you

  18. Dear Ramki,
    What you think about if 1.3170 top and after A-B-C correction what was happened from 1.2800 low.if this correct this week need a nice fall if not then the next target again higher and higher.
    thank you

  19. Its been a really long time since the EURUSD update. A medium term update would be nice. Thanks in advance!

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