Elliott Wave Update on Dow Jones 17 Jan 2010

Here is the Elliott wave update on the Dow Jones as of 17 January 2010. It has been a while since I looked at this chart. Someone sent me a note that Bob Prechter has called the top in this index, and he had read about it in Planet Yelnick. So I decided to take a fresh look at the chart for the Dow, and you can see my wave count right on the chart itself.

One of the frequent criticisms against Elliott Wave analysis is that the same chart is capable of so many different interpretations. However, the experienced trader knows that in order to make money, one should follow any ONE count at a time. Only then can the trader know when he is wrong. As soon as he realizes he is wrong, he can take quick corrective action, perhaps switching to the alternate count that he prefers. As for the Elliott wave counts for the DOW, no one can be sure who has the correct wave count until the move is over. By that time, it will be too late to do anything, and the whole exercise will become academic. So I urge traders to read Planet Yelnick for comments on Prechter’s count, then go to Tony Caldero’s page, and finally come back and read my own count. Then you decide which one you wish to adopt for the time being, and stick with any one of us. At some point you will know whether you are on the right track to making money or not, and then you can decide your next course of action. Good luck. Ramki

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  1. Ramki,
    You get it- the extended 3rd. The 5th will likely take much of 2010 to complete.
    As i posted at Yelnick’s, the coming 4th of 1 is an ‘uncrash’ when most expect/predict the next leg down for the bear.
    It is the typical EW’s impulsive Cycle/Primary 1st waves reaction at momentary highs and small corrections. The corrections are always characterized by the doomers. It stiil amazes one when the indices get oversold with one or two down days!

    You appear to have this coming 4th as a ZZ but I expect a flat to about 10,000.

    Gold looks like a sideways complex trading range to me for a few months at least.

    wave rust

    1. Hi Wave Rust,
      You are right in anticipating a Flat for the possible 4th wave. Because we had a relatively short ZZ for the 2nd, we should expect the 4th to be a complex correction lasting for an extended period of time. That will satisfy the requirement for alternation. My graph shows the correction as a ZZ because I was running out of place to mark the extent of the correction and the 5th wave that should follow. Thanks for your comments. Ramki

  2. Ramki, this has reference to your analysis of DJI dated 17th Jan 2010. I should say you stand out as the best wave analyst – your view that the dow was just completing an extended third and had further room up has come out bang on.
    We traded a high of 10955 so far this week (just about your minimum target) and although you have (had) not given any target for the 5th, i would imagine you will soon see the chart to write where you think this will top. Too tempting to say we must have just about topped, but will wait for your statement to take a call!! Brilliant as always!!

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