Is the Indian Rupee ready to trap the bulls?

The Indian Rupee is again above the 50 level, and both exporters and importers are anxious about its prospect. I had taken a stance several weeks ago that the currency is more likely to be at 45 than at 57. It actually topped out earlier around 50.25 and declined below 47. But now it has climbed back above 50, creating doubts about its near term outlook. Like in any market, we have to take a view in order to benefit from the analysis. There is nothing that has happened so far that negates the elliot wave count. The fact that the Rupee has come back above 50 is in line with the double-retracement idea discussed a couple of posts earlier (see the posts about fifth wave extensions). So don’t be surprised if the currency makes an about face and comes off as rapidly as it went up. Here is another chart to guide you. A word of caution here. No amount of wave counting, or Fibonacci analysis (or voodoo or astrology) can guarantee you what the market will do next. But we do have many precedents of how the market has behaved after a fifth wave extension, and so one has to take his/her chances. The best way to protect yourself is to have stops in place. If the idea works, you should have the confidence and courage to stay with the trade till your objective is reached. Only then will your having taken the risk be worthwhile. Best. Ramki

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1 Comment

  1. There is hardly anyone in this land that believes rupee will gain – it will be a tribute and testimony to the beauty of good technical analysis if rupee were to trade around 45.25. Having been your fan for more than a decade and half, i am possibly the most eager of all to see this happen. GL

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