Outlook for Gold : 13 Dec 2010

There have been several requests for my outlook on Gold. The attached chart gives you the Elliott Wave Analyst’s view of where the precious metal is likely to go in the coming weeks. As you can see, Gold has experienced a bout of profit-taking at the 300% fibonacci extension target. However, the current setback for Gold is still viewed only as a correction. During this phase, expect initial supports to come in around 1368, but the crucial support really lies at 1320. I expect Gold to find fresh buyers on any dip to 1349/50 levels, which is where a minor trendline support comes. The next rally will take us to new record highs, and will reach 1448. The technical equality target lies at 1460, and so we could experience a brief spike to that level, but at present, traders should be quite content with taking profits at 1448 or thereabouts. Thus, the forecast for Gold prices is to remain bullish, and buy on dips.


  • ajay

    dear sir merry xmas and happy new year can give us a count on gold how the wave is acting recently the correction seem very complex

  • sanjeev


    i want to learn more about elliott wave what to do ?


    • Sanjeev,

      Start by reading a standard book on Elliott Wave Principle. (the one by Robert Precter is often recommended). You can then go through the hundreds of real-life examples in Wave Times. Gradually, you will recognize wave patterns in everything, and you are already on your way! Good luck

  • ajay

    dear sir, i just want to know is there a diagonal triangle formation in gold if so after hittng 1424$ gold fell below 2.4% can we say that it was a final wave and now gold is going to tumble !”or can we we see another rally from 1375$

  • yasser

    Dear Mr. Ramki,

    First would like to wish you a Happy New Year, and wish that 2011 is a much better year than previous years, full of joy, wealth and health.

    I have 2 requests Mr. Ramki and I be very much appreciated if you respond back.

    1. You have closed the comments on Dubai index page and on Saudi Stocks and if I’m not mistaken the same thing is on Saudi. These pages were last updated in May 2010. Apologies if I have date incorrect.

    My question or request, is that as long as you have a public blog, we as visitors and people who like to learn and read your analysis have the right to add comments within certain parameters our guidelines that should be respected, but closing the comments doesn’t let anyone to ask any question or add a comment, especially for those that are seeking education &/or advice, which I’m sure me and others have asked your update on Dubai, Saudi, & even Kuwait if I’m not mistaken through other pages in your blog for several months, but unfortunately we had no response.

    Whoever is interested in Dubai or UAE equities really want to see your views and analysis, as we ask you. because we trust your analysis and would love to read them.

    Mr. Ramki, my request is a favour to all those asking about Dubai Index or individual stocks to give them an update to know where we stand.

    2nd, sometimes I give my comments on your analysis, on a certain stocks or indices , unfortunately I find my comments deleted, and these comments really have nothing wrong with them, all they are just normal comments and views.

    Mr. Ramki appreciate your understanding and would be grateful if we can see and read your updated analysis on the GCC markets.

    Best Regards,

    • Yasser, many thanks for your comments. (a) I have changed the settings to keep comments open indefinitely instead of closing after 30 days! (b) Your dates are probably correct I havent been posting for long on several instruments. It is just that I am so awfully busy with office work,and this blog is just a hobby, and a means to stay in touch with friends from around the world. (c) I never delete an honest comment, even if it is critical of me. Apologies if your posts have inadvertently been left out. Sometimes, I see the same person repeatedly asking for the same thing. If that comment doesnt add value to others, I might leave it out. (d) Finally, I will try and post something on the GCC next week. Best wishes for the new year too.

  • yasser

    Dear Ramki,

    Thank you for your reply, really appreciated, and will be looking forward to read your analysis on the GCC markets especially Dubai

    Mant thanks,

  • ajay

    hi sir how are you i hope you are fine sir kindly tell us when your reviewing your analysis for gold and silver for this year

  • Kunal

    Dear Ramki,

    The Gold is very near the target price given by you. Would you please review this again.

    • Kunal, Thanks for pointing this out. I would like readers of this blog to understand one thing. The mere fact of having reached a certain target does not mean the move is over. Certainly one should not contemplate selling just because a technical target has been reached. Ofcourse, it is certainly possible that Gold might have finished (or close to finishing) its rally. But until the time we have evidence that a top is in place, we should be ever so cautious. There are some supports at 1445 levels, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we get another attempt higher while this support holds. Only after we see a new 5 wave downmove finish will I start thinking about putting out a sell recommendation. How is this different from TCS where I appear to be comfortable in maintaining a downside target even before the top is definitively posted? I really can’t explain it. Sometimes I just feel it so. I realize that this is not a sensible answer. Maybe it is because TCS is doing a second extension within its 5 wave upmove? OK. Let me just say this. Once Gold finishes this rally, we will commence a decline down to 1160. Hope that satisfies some of you!

  • pravin phatak

    Dear Mr. Ramki,
    I have been reading your posts regularly and find them very educative.
    Request your views on power finance and torrent power.
    These two stocks have been in down trend since long and have already retraced ~50 % or more as compared to the big run up they had.
    I would like to understand your views about these two.

    Pravin Phata

  • Yasser

    Dear Mr.. Ramki,

    Thank you again for these beautiful charts, always enjoy reading them, but still waiting for your promise in January regarding the GCC markets and especially Dubai market, so would really be grateful if you would give us your views.

    Appreciate you efforts and time, but your view is really important.

    Best Regards

  • Kunal

    Thanks Sir for your insights.

  • […] have finally found where the elusive comment on Gold was posted. As you will notice, that comment was posted on 7th April, and the low on Gold was […]

  • hemin

    sir you label as W-1(1005.40 )AND W-2(864.50)
    AND W-3(1226.10) AND W-4(1043.75)
    but their is no alteration between w-2 and w-4 or i can not see
    and how and where you measure for this target
    Sir. one request now please give us road map and wave count of silver


    • Hemin, The alternation btw 2 and 4 is seen in the depth of correction here. Wave 2 was shorter. However, the alternation btw wave ii and wave iv (within the fifth wave) is different. Wave iv is complex (being an irregular wave)…We prepare for alternation, but cannot anticipate in what form it will show up.

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