Outlook for the Dow – DJIA

Dow JonesHaving prepared this on the 15th, with an intention of sharing with readers the same evening, I went out for a walk. I suddenly remembered that I had promised my wife that we will go to the movies, and promptly forgot that this update was ready! Anyway, we are still not too far from where we were on the 15th, So here goes.

In the big picture, we should still lookout for a move down to 9970. ANy failure to move and stay above 11725 will see the next round of sell off. Indeed, we could even fail near the prior fourth wave at 11,575. So take care.


  • Mark Woods

    Dear Ramki, with regard to the dow and Elliott wave, I’m unsure of your larger picture analysis. Are we bull or bear please? Have we just completed wave1 up and are experiencing correction wave2? Many thanks Mark

    • Hello Mark, Your question is somewhat similar to another question I answered today (asked by Eric under Crude Oil). My approach to EWP is to focus on making money. Anyway, we got a 5 wave rally from March 2009. (I am calling it a 5 wave move, someone else could say it is a 3 wave move and say the Dow will go all the way to 5150. We shouldn’t quarrel with them) This 5 wave move could be either an A wave, or the first wave of a new bull market. I would like to think that the DOW will not go below 8900 and if we can figure out the end point of the C wave correctly, we should actually buy there. Even if we are wrong, we should still end up making decent money. What do you say? (By the way, I have covered how to determine the end point of the C wave in sufficient detail in the upcoming book)

      • Mark Woods

        Would just like to say thank you for your considerate response. Warm regards, Mark

        • mark

          15.09.2011 Hi Ramki, I have the growing suspicion we’re currently still in wave A of a correction in the dow/ftse and would guess the market will actually bottom somewhen after xmas? To me it looks like a 50% or 61.8% move? Just my thoughts. Warm regards, Mark

  • Dear Ramki, if you have time, please alalysis the china stock, i have sold all stock on aug 4th.



  • zen

    I suppose another interpretation is that the decline from late July was one big wave 3, after which we corrected with wave 4 up, and that wave 5 down began yesterday, 8/18. It seems strange though for the current decline to be wave 5 down when the major indices have all found footing today at pretty much the same lows of yesterday, like if the brakes were magically being applied. It really feels like the bottom of wave B which brings expectation of a wave C up next week. If we are to expect a coming wave C in equities at this time, that would also portend a correction in the precious metals which has been due for some time. Thanks for the articles, Ramki.

  • zen

    The Dow is now sporting what looks like a 4th wave triangle and looks certain to break to a wave 5 down.

  • SR

    Dear Ramki now that India Nifty has reached 4700 and you still see a bottom of 9960 on DJIA is there still more downside left for india?

  • […] a month back, on 18th August, when we discussed the Elliott Wave outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we identified 11725 as a key level. The index topped out at 11712 and came off by over 7%. […]

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