Quo Vadis, S&P500 index?

When one is dealing with a complex correction, it is best to let others do the trading while you sit back and watch. This is what I have done with the S&P 500. I made my views clear. I pointed out this was a complex correction. A lot of people are trying to figure out tops and bottoms. It is a futile exercise. There are just too many possibilities.

The best way to deal with it is to wait for a clear impulse move in one direction and then trade on the retracement. There are other clues, and these are explained in my upcoming book. (Some of you with long memories will remember I posted a teaser chart that is appearing in the book. That called for a retest of the highs. How I came up with that back in mid-June is explained in the book too). But seriously, you should avoid trading a complex correction if you can. At worst, you would have missed an opportunity. On the other hand, you could have saved yourself needless tension and perhaps even some hard-earned cash!

 

Do share if you found this useful

26 Comments

  1. Dear Ramki,

    Thank you for the great post. Your mentioned in here about the teaser chart. Is it available on your site for review otherwise I would really appreciate it if you don’t mind emailing it to me.

    Best Regards,
    San

    1. Hi Pooja,
      Thanks, but it looks like it will take a few weeks more because I am not happy with some of the chapters and have decided to rewrite parts of the book. This is perhaps good news because it will then have more recent examples as well!

  2. I agree Ramki, You make money trading the impulse, and lose it trading the correction. You have been warned.

  3. Hello Mr Ramki
    Your coming new book is the best news of the summer, and this time with a touch of a thriller story, What made you think we would go up again, when almost everybody believed the correction was over…? Just waiting impatiently the end of the story!
    Antonio

  4. Hi, Sir,
    I have been following your blog since last 6 months and learnt a lot from you . And i have recently bought you book FWFF and it really helped me a lot, the way you have explained the waves is really sweet and simple. Its really an honour to meet you whenever you will be in India, please let me know whenever you visit India. Sir, There are so many read between the lines in your articles and book too some people try to understand and i really trying to understand the “read between the lines”
    Regards
    Dev Rajadhikary

  5. Hello Ramki
    I am still new to EW. How do you decide if a move is a clear impulse move or not, given today’s rise of almost 2% on S&P index.

    1. Hi Bansi, Thank you for your comment. I hope you have purchased the book FWTFF because that explains in detail. Briefly, your concern should be what time frame you are looking at. There are smaller impulse waves even inside a correction. As of now, I am still of the opinion we are inside a large correction. In the big picture, the current recovery is still not signalling the commencement of a roaring bull market.

    1. Hello Hadi, As you know, at WaveTimes I am not able to help individuals on their specific interests. I took a quick look at NHPS, and I think we are in Wave 4 and so later on we will get a wave 5 rally higher.

  6. mr. ramki, in order to gain better clarity for spx direction would it not help to analyse the dow components seperately. the dow and spx track very closely. there are only 30 of them and we can concentrate on the highest weighted. i suggest assigning a dow stock to each of your followers who then can report back with the direction for each market in the next 5 days: up, down or sideways. best regards, nadir

    1. Hi Nadir, Members of our club are free to experiment and post! Bear in mind that WaveTimes is only a hobby for me, a platform to connect with frineds like you. Hence I can only devote a ceratin amount of time to it.

  7. unda II nullum, S&P 500 Index!
    Dear Ramki…..your prophetic analysis of the S&P 500 back in March of this year, suggested a potential high of 1435 to 1475. During the interim, the S&P 500 appears to have topped at 1422 (Wave B), traded down to 1266 (breaching the 1292 wave 1 high) and rallied back near the 1422 top. With five distinct waves down from the 1422 top, and what appears to be a complex correction now unfolding into wave 2, EW tenets state that wave 2 does not exceed the beginning of wave 1, which was at 1422, which would suggest that we should now be positioning ourselves for wave 3 (of C)…Correct?

    that is the reason for my latin statement above which translates into: wave 2 no higher, S&P 500 Index.

  8. Hi Ramki,

    The S&P 500 just broke its previous high (made on 27/3/12). Since wave 2 can never exceed the start of wave 1, is it possible that we will see the C wave correction start now?

    Thanks,

    Karan

    1. Hi Karan, as of now I am still considering that we are in wave 5 of the C wave of an irregular B wave. If everything goes as per this count, once we finish the B wave, a rage C wave should commence. Let us see.

  9. I am thinking the same Karan. I can’t make the 5th wave of c of irregular B for the S&P 500 because I can only see wave 4 (Jun. 4 ’12) going just below top of wave 1 (Dec. 8 ’11) in this c therefore breaking the rule . Ramki is this because it was out of usual U.S hours when it happened? Was it to small to take notice of? I can’t get enough detail to check the time on that date..I Would have a 5th of B finish around 1437 (if 61.8% of 0-3) but have the crossover problem. Any advice?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *