Spanish 'Rescue' : Ready, Fire, Aim!

In an attempt to plug the leaks before the dam bursts (read Greek election results) Eurozone officials have agreed on a bailout for Spanish banks. However, a few points are relevant: It is not Spain that will determine how much the banks need, but the Eurpoean Commission and other outside experts. Secondly, while the commitment is for EUR 100 bln, (which is an overshoot of what many thought was actually required), some now think the real extent of funding requirement may be even higher than this number. Thirdly, as of now, the package comes with the guarantee of the Spanish Goverment, which probably takes the sovereign debt to unsustainable levels. On top of all this, the money is not going to arrive until later this month, and even then after a positive vote from all 17 members of the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the markets are rejoicing. (Are they really happy with the Spanish rescue, or are they anticipating further injection of liquidity? It doesn’t matter, really!) What matters is we are in an upswing today. The key question is how long will it last. Hmmm. This is not a technical update! Just some thinking aloud while waiting for the next Elliott Wave signal to emerge.
P.S. I recommend that you read Nouriel Roubini’s article written about a month ago.

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  1. sir ur thinking also comes with ur experience… is very precious thought for us who have a guru like u…..

  2. Point Taken. EW’s across all major assets are indicating down sides. But then, what happens on Global Policy front will determine how Wave counts play out. Anyway being TA’s seeing market rally before a major event does make one cynical.

    BTW, a very good book on EW indeed. By far the best I have read on the subject.

  3. Hi Ramki, thank you for your latest posting. You asked for a reminder on nzd a while back and if you were to find time for it in weeks ahead I would be glad of it. Many thanks, Mark

  4. Dear Sir,
    If u can update a count on Base Metals Like Nickle, Copper ,Lead ,Zinc & Aluminum in INR it will be very helpful for us .

  5. Dear Ramki, welcome back. Hope you had a wonderful vacation. Missed you for a while.
    Dr Sanjay Pote.

  6. Hi Ramki,
    Hope you had a good trip, on waiting for an Elliott signal, I’m tracking as wave 3 of 3, (started today), it is of course dependant upon the dollar and what it does,

  7. Hope you enjoyed your travel thru the US. I had hoped to have a chat. Maybe next time.

    Saw your Forbes interveiew.

    Well done.


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