Trading GBPUSD in the short term

The Pound has been steadily gaining ground and is poised to reach the 61.8% retracement of its last swing lower. This comes at 1.5664, and is worth looking at closely. Besides, if we consider that the recovery is a double zigzag, the second wave ‘c’ has a 123.6% measure of wave ‘a’ at 1.5666. If we look at the internal waves of wave ‘c’ we see that the 5th minor wave will have its 61.8% measure of the distance from 0 to 3 at 1.5680. We also see that an Elliott wave channel top comes around that level. Considering all this, one might consider a SMALL short position at 1.5663 with a stop at 1.5683. If stopped, one should wait for 1.5778 and sell a bit more aggressively there with a stop at 1.5798. These are really counter-trend trades and I present them here so you could learn how I think about waves. It is not a recommendation!



11 Comments

  • Gomes

    Thank you for sharing your studies. I do appreciate it very much.
    Kind regards.
    =AGomes

  • Hi Ramki,

     I have a slightly different take, which is basically, that the correction could be complete, I have labelled as a minor a b c, correction, it is as follows, minor wave “a” is a zig zag, running from the low of the 12th march, to 11th April, then a double zig zag for wave b, running to 23rd april, then c a simple 5 thus far, looking like just about to complete as of today, all on a daily chart, have a look and let me know what you think, ie a probable correction, it is a substitution pattern for a zig zag, but seem to be more often than not these days!

  • Ajoy

    Good to hear from you after a long time my friend.
    Thanks!
    Finally you proved that you don’t have dronacharya syndrome where you reserve your comments to members of wavetime.net. There are few Ekalavya’s out there who are in process of mastering the EWA following your manuscript FWFF towards financial freedom.
    Your timely blog just confirms my analysis on GBP/USD.
    Good One , Ramki.

    • Ajoy, I have already said that this free blog will ALWAYS be around, as long as I am physically and mentally alert. The frequency of updates depends on how busy I am at my office, and whether I have anything meaningful to say. Likewise, wavetimes.net updates will also happen only when I believe there is a low-risk-high-reward trade. As for others using FWTFF, I am quite happy to see others prosper. In fact, the book is priced so that everyone can afford it, and anyone who wishes to learn can do so. Sometimes, I read it myself, because it reinforces my beliefs. Knowledge should be shared. I wrote that book to leave my mark in the world, and hopefully, readers like you will remember me long after I leave..Good luck

  • Kevin

    Hi Ramki

    Can you let me know, what you use to identify momentum? The rsi on a daily chart is/has found resistance at a bearish 63, do you use some other form/oscillator?

    Many thanks & regards
    ps, I’d like to check my count, I already have a 1 2 1 2 over lap to the down side, (1 hour chart from the 1st may high) so either a further connecting b wave is developing, if the correction is to extend further, or the start of intermediate 3, ie my momentum says its cooked, the weekly rsi is producing negative reversals, and the monthly finding resistance under its averages, (if you use averages on RSI)

    • Kevin, We have found some resistance at the 50% retracement of the move from 1.6382 to 1.4827. While we stay above 1.5475, I ‘d like a move to 1.5660 to clean out all shorts and then come down. But then, if there is enough selling at recent highs or at 1.5620/25, we could come off without reaching the ideal level! I don’t use any specific oscillators…just the standard ones to reinforce my thinking.

  • Kevin

    Thanks Ramki,

    I wrote something today, for part of my updates, and it is this “the opportunity in financial markets is continuous, you just need to know what opportunity it is you are looking to trade”

    all the best,

  • Jete

    Hi Ramki,

    What’s worng with commodity(gold) and AUDUSD?. Is it related with GBPUSD now?. What wave is AUDUSD now?. Thank’s

    • Hi Jete, all traded instruments have their own cycles. Short term news could at best make them stray temporarily out of line. Stop trying to figure out the reasons for the move. Instead, focus on where we are in the degree you are trading. For example, you could be bullish in the 15 minute charts while a fund manger could be bearish in the weekly chart. Both of you may be right. ( or wrong ). The best way to deal with the markets is to figure out a significant low or high and start counting from there. Enter the market based on your own counts with suitable stops.

  • Ajoy

    Ramki,
    Hope you are fine. Do you have any updates on GBP/USD for Long term and Short term?

    Looking forward to a positive response.

    Thanks!

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