Skip to Content

New Zealand Dollar Outlook

New Zealand 100 dollar note with the words New Zealand Dollar Outlook

In this post, we are going to discuss the New Zealand Dollar Outlook. As always, we will use the Elliott Wave Analysis to form our conclusions.

Where do we start our analysis?

We start our analysis from the most recent significant low for the New Zealand Dollar. This has been explained in detail in my Elliott Wave book “Five Waves to FInancial Freedom“.

New Zealand Dollar outlook with target pointed at 100% projection level at 0.6171

 

We see from the above chart that we place the first Elliott Wave label at the lowest significant low. That point is called the zero point.  We then proceed to place the labels for wave 1 and wave 2. The end of wave 3 for the New Zealand Dollar is also shown. The more interesting thing is we have projected a 100% measure of the distance from point zero to point 3. That target is at 0.6171. Our analysis thus has the outlook that 0.6171 is a possible target for the New Zealand dollar in the near term.

How do we gain confidence in our outlook for New Zealand Dollar?

We gain confidence in our outlook for the New Zealand Dollar by approaching the analysis from a different angle. Let us draw the Fibonacci Retracement of the move from 0.7218 to 0.5510. We see that a 38.2% retracement level comes at 0.6162. This is very close to the 0.6171 level we got in the previous chart. Such a confluence of Fibonacci levels adds to our confidence that our outlook for the New Zealand dollar could well be right.

There is a confluence around 0.6162 and 0.6171 in New Zealand dollar, pointed out by an arrow.

Conclusion

We conlcude that in the near term, the outlook for the New Zealand DOllar is for it to find reistance around the 0.6162 levels. We may or maynot reach that level. But if it does get there, we could well have a trading opportunity. My online Elliott Wave Course, How to Profit from Elliott Waves, explains in detail what are the various factors we should take into account before entering a trade.

 

Voon YukChoy

Tuesday 15th of November 2022

Why do you draw your fibo grid from 0.5510 to 0.7218 and not to its peak at 0.7463 ?

Ramki

Thursday 17th of November 2022

VoonYC, Good question. Sometimes it is a matter of trying out from a couple of significant tops. Remember, this is not an exact science, but an approach to trading.