New Zealand Dollar NZD Kiwi outlook

It’s been a long easy (!) road for the New Zealand Dollar, the currency that Forex traders know more affectionately as the Kiwi. But it is increasingly looking like the honeymoon is over.

Take a look at the attached chart of the NZD that gives you an Elliott Wave Analysis of the currency. The New Zealand Dollar embarked on its journey back in 2009 from around the low of 0.4900 and it peaked on Aug 1st as 0.8840. That is an 80% appreciation, and I am sure exporters of the tasty butter and soft wool and healthy lambs must have been hurting all along.

Well, your troubles are probably over, because over the next few months, we should come off to 0.7970 initially, and shortly thereafter to 0.7760. Further out, we will see a continuation of the decline down to 0.7170 area. Some of the unwinding could happen with a reversal in Gold, and also a decline in the price of Oil. Commodity currencies should generally suffer in the process. But enough of the fundamental stuff. You already know my views in Oil – it will go down to around $71. So let us look at the outlook for NZD, or Kiwi.

Update on 29 August 2019:

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15 Comments

  1. Hi Ramki, a question regarding your recent kiwi count. I wonder why you started the count where you started it, ie. in the middle of wave, ignoring the first wave up and its correction? If we include this missing part, then the count suggests that we have actually completed wave 3 and there is still one more wave up to go.
    Thanks,
    John

    1. Hello John, Thank you for your comment. In my upcoming book I have described why I count from a certain point. But I will let you have a sneak peak. The reason is: In the long run we are all dead. If I have to make money, I have to try my luck while I can still afford to lose some. By taking a five wave count off a manageable significant low, I would be able to trade a time frame that makes sense to me, both from a P/L point of view, and from a practical point of view. WHo cares if we get a fifth wave up after 2 years when I may not remember today’s count, or worse, I could be retired , or still worse, I could be dead!

  2. Hi Ramki,

    Pretty interesting website. I am checking some of your posts and they are quite a good revelations. I would like to know your views and analysis on Gold (levels/forecasts?)

    Cheers!

  3. Hello Ramki, i would like to congratulate you on your book it was one of the best books i have read on elliot wave theory.
    i would like to ask a question regarding the future direction of the nzd usd.
    do you remain bearish? i have applied all the principles outlined in your book which seem to hint at a completed 5 wave pattern 85.70 – 74.70.
    there are some strong fib relationships between the waves.
    wave 2 50 % wave 1
    wave 3 200 % wave 1
    wave 4 38.2 % wave 3
    wave 5 138.2 wave 1 and 50 % wave 1-3.

    if we are still in a fourth wave its very deep and heading towards an overlap of wave 1.
    thankyou for your time.

    1. Hello Paul,
      Thanks for the comments. I had sent a special update to all those who had purchased the book, and that update dealt with NZD in detail. I will send it off to you. Furthermore, there is a slight revision to the count and you will see from my next update on WaveTimes how I am dealing with it. You will also learn how wave counting is a dynamic process. Good luck.

  4. Good evening Ramki, I was led here on the hyperlink of your book Five Waves to Financial Freedom. Words cannot describe how thankful I am for this book and the work you put into this great piece of work. Before reading your book, I read many others as well as saw many many videos on Elliott Wave, but yet I was still lost and somewhat confused. After reading the first 3 chapters, I knew your book was nothing similar to the others I had read. The way you teach the concepts made it really easy to understand. I am now on the right road. Thank you! May you live a healthy and blessed life.

    1. Hello MC. Thank you for your kind words. Why don’t you consider posting this as a review of the book on the Amazon website? That would be a nice way of sharing your thoughts with others looking for guidance. Good luck in your trading.

  5. hi ramki,
    in the hindsight we can say this is excellent labelling. if ur labels were not there I would have labelled the top as wave 3. is it an ending diagonal in wave 5?

    1. Piyush, You can see from the chart that this post was dated the same day as the chart , where the date of the chart appears on the top left corner. Labelling is not easy for most people im the beginning, but with experience, one becomes better at it. In the final analysis, all labels are tentative, and only after a move ends can we really say, well, perhaps this was the “right” count. In the meantime, we trade with the best available information and our knowlege of how the elliott wave principle is supposed to be applied.

  6. Hello Ramki Sir,

    i read your book ‘five waves to financial freedom”. i like the book so much. the only think i want to know is that how u count your waves like in very close look u intentionally miss 1 wave and took another as a wave count but i think if i count missing 1 then my whole calculation will be wrong. so this is very important for me to which 1 i should ignore.

    for example in this chart when 4 wave complete then u start marking (i) and there is more wave in between 0.72 and 0.74 approx so why we dont take this as (i)??

    thank you 🙂

  7. Hi Dear Respected Ramki!

    I am reading your book, Five Waves to Financial Freedom, and wish it to finish in one sitting. I have never read such a fantastic material on EWP. i am personally thankful to you for writing such a good book. I hope this book is going to give me absolute financial freedom.

    Regards

  8. Hello Sir,

    I have read your book on Elliot and was led here from the reference in the book.

    I am failing to understand how you select waves and mark them i) ii)…

    With reference to the image in the post, in fifth wave after 1st sub wave is created there is a lower low which you have not marked as anything. Shouldn’t that be ii) as it is currently lower than the ii) marked?
    If we continue on this thought then the marked ii) could be the start point of a new elliot wave.

    Currently I am having difficult in identifying these waves using a mathematical formulae. I am using the support of Fractals on one higher timeframe to mark beginning/completion of waves end points.

    1. Hello Neel, This is a good question. It would have been even better if you had asked why there is an overlap of minor wave iv over minor wave i. Bear in mind that this is all wave 5 (red color) and although it is not appearing like a proper ending diagonal, it is a wave 5 where its internal waves are in threes. Hope that helps to clarify your doubt. I have addressed the practical aspects of trading in my on-line program. When you think you are ready to take your knowledge one level higher, then I recommend enrolling in that program (while the price is still at a 50% discount)!

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